Thursday, July 13, 2006
So, it seems like the middle east, in the last day or two, has gone from it's usual state of "Powderkeg waiting to go off", to "Powderkeg in the process of going off". We're now seeing the extent to which it's going off, and trying to predict how long it will be going off.
Israel and Lebannon are trading rocket fire, and Israeli troops pushed 7 miles into Lebannon yesterday. Haifa was hit by a Lebaneese missile - the furthest any missile from Lebanon has gone into Israel. Israel bombed airports, and has established a naval blockade around Lebanon.
All as a result of Hizbollah taking Israeli soldiers captive.
or, to take another step back, Hizbollah acted in the only way it could to force a prisoner exchange.
or, to take another step back, Israel took Hizbollah prisoners because they're terrorists trying to harm Israelis.
or, to take another step back, Hizbollah is still fighting a war over borders, and the "illegal" existence of the state of Israel in the first place.
You can keep taking steps back, to find out who started the whole thing, past the UN mandate, past the Ottoman Empire, past the Roman empire, past the ministry of Jesus, past the babylonian and assyrian and other empires, all the way back to Abraham handing off his birthright to the wrong son (or right son, depending on what side you find yourself on).
Anyone got any realistic ideas on how to solve this mess? I sure don't.
Israel and Lebannon are trading rocket fire, and Israeli troops pushed 7 miles into Lebannon yesterday. Haifa was hit by a Lebaneese missile - the furthest any missile from Lebanon has gone into Israel. Israel bombed airports, and has established a naval blockade around Lebanon.
All as a result of Hizbollah taking Israeli soldiers captive.
or, to take another step back, Hizbollah acted in the only way it could to force a prisoner exchange.
or, to take another step back, Israel took Hizbollah prisoners because they're terrorists trying to harm Israelis.
or, to take another step back, Hizbollah is still fighting a war over borders, and the "illegal" existence of the state of Israel in the first place.
You can keep taking steps back, to find out who started the whole thing, past the UN mandate, past the Ottoman Empire, past the Roman empire, past the ministry of Jesus, past the babylonian and assyrian and other empires, all the way back to Abraham handing off his birthright to the wrong son (or right son, depending on what side you find yourself on).
Anyone got any realistic ideas on how to solve this mess? I sure don't.
# posted by TheObiBlog : 12:23 PM
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Kidnapping Israeli soldiers is a sophisticated operation, something that has not been within the abilities of the Arab enemies of Israel so far. Terrorist attacks until now against Israel have saddened and angered Israelis, but their responses have been very measured and pragmatic.
These kidnappings have introduced a relatively new emotion to the Israelis: fear. Fear that the one single advantage they have over the enemies who surround them (superior training, education, and equipment) is eroding. Fear that the younger generation now serving in the IDF has not proven itself against those enemies. Fear that the hyenas are circling, waiting to see if Israel can come off the uniquivocal conqueror this time.
Israel is calling up reservists, which shows they are going to invade and occupy part of Lebanon, not just strike from the air. They know they don't have much time, since they economically cannot field a large force for very long. They will therefore have to strike hard, liquidate Hezbollah, and retreat. They won't have time to be careful, so it will be devastating.
Hopefully Iran can be constrained from coming to Hezbolla's aid, so that the latter will be thrown under the bus once again. Hopefully Syria will stay out of the conflict, but Israel is prepared to deal with them as well-- again, the order of the day will be celerity rather then precision.
The substantial disruption of Hezbollah will actually be a good thing. If Israel shows any weakness or wishy-washiness in their response, though, then their existence as a nation is in jeopardy.
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These kidnappings have introduced a relatively new emotion to the Israelis: fear. Fear that the one single advantage they have over the enemies who surround them (superior training, education, and equipment) is eroding. Fear that the younger generation now serving in the IDF has not proven itself against those enemies. Fear that the hyenas are circling, waiting to see if Israel can come off the uniquivocal conqueror this time.
Israel is calling up reservists, which shows they are going to invade and occupy part of Lebanon, not just strike from the air. They know they don't have much time, since they economically cannot field a large force for very long. They will therefore have to strike hard, liquidate Hezbollah, and retreat. They won't have time to be careful, so it will be devastating.
Hopefully Iran can be constrained from coming to Hezbolla's aid, so that the latter will be thrown under the bus once again. Hopefully Syria will stay out of the conflict, but Israel is prepared to deal with them as well-- again, the order of the day will be celerity rather then precision.
The substantial disruption of Hezbollah will actually be a good thing. If Israel shows any weakness or wishy-washiness in their response, though, then their existence as a nation is in jeopardy.
# posted by 
: July 14, 2006 12:39 PM
: July 14, 2006 12:39 PMSubscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
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